AGIdex
agidex/Capabilities/Reasoning/Causal Reasoning
SUB-CAPABILITY · REASONING

Causal Reasoning

44%
vs. HUMAN BASELINE = 100
PartialConf · Medium

Scoring rubric

0–20
Early research
20–40
Narrow benchmark competence
40–60
Strong benchmark · reliability gaps
60–80
Human-competitive in common scenarios
80–100
Comparable to typical skilled adult
100+
Reliably exceeds typical human baseline

Score vs. baseline

Trend · Last 12 months
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What this measures

Human baseline

Distinguish correlation from causation in familiar everyday scenarios.

Human frontier

Design controlled experiments and infer causal graphs from observational data.

Current state

What works

Pearl-style intervention questions in textbook settings.

Key gaps

Confounders in messy real-world data. Counterfactual reasoning over long timeframes.

Evidence

0 sources
TechnologyQualitySourceScore vs. baselineScore
No evidence records yet.
Source: paperswithcode.com/sota/causal-reasoning-on-cladder · Last reviewed May 2026